What the 10-year US Treasury yield is, and how it and bitcoin have moved in each calendar year since 2015, from the yield’s 0.52% low in August 2020 to 5.31% in October 2026, using the Treasury’s own daily figures.
Data as of · 10-year yields from the US Treasury’s daily par yield curve · bitcoin at daily closes (UTC)
| Year | 10-yr yield, start | 10-yr yield, end | Yield change | Year’s high | Year’s low | BTC, start | BTC, end | BTC change | Moved in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2.17% | 2.27% | ▲ +0.10 pp | 2.50% Jun 10, 2015 | 1.68% Jan 30, 2015 | $320.19 | $430.57 | ▲ +34.47% | Same |
| 2016 | 2.27% | 2.45% | ▲ +0.18 pp | 2.60% Dec 15, 2016 | 1.37% Jul 5, 2016 | $430.57 | $963.74 | ▲ +123.83% | Same |
| 2017 | 2.45% | 2.40% | ▼ −0.05 pp | 2.62% Mar 13, 2017 | 2.05% Sep 7, 2017 | $963.74 | $14,156 | ▲ +1368.90% | Opposite |
| 2018 | 2.40% | 2.69% | ▲ +0.29 pp | 3.24% Nov 8, 2018 | 2.44% Jan 3, 2018 | $14,156 | $3,743 | ▼ −73.56% | Opposite |
| 2019 | 2.69% | 1.92% | ▼ −0.77 pp | 2.79% Jan 18, 2019 | 1.47% Aug 28, 2019 | $3,743 | $7,194 | ▲ +92.20% | Opposite |
| 2020 | 1.92% | 0.93% | ▼ −0.99 pp | 1.88% Jan 2, 2020 | 0.52% Aug 4, 2020 | $7,194 | $29,002 | ▲ +303.16% | Opposite |
| 2021 | 0.93% | 1.52% | ▲ +0.59 pp | 1.74% Mar 19, 2021 | 0.93% Jan 4, 2021 | $29,002 | $46,306 | ▲ +59.67% | Same |
| 2022 | 1.52% | 3.88% | ▲ +2.36 pp | 4.25% Oct 24, 2022 | 1.63% Jan 3, 2022 | $46,306 | $16,547 | ▼ −64.27% | Opposite |
| 2023 | 3.88% | 3.88% | 0.00 pp | 4.98% Oct 19, 2023 | 3.30% Apr 5, 2023 | $16,547 | $42,265 | ▲ +155.42% | Yield flat |
| 2024 | 3.88% | 4.58% | ▲ +0.70 pp | 4.70% Apr 25, 2024 | 3.63% Sep 16, 2024 | $42,265 | $93,429 | ▲ +121.05% | Same |
| 2025 | 4.58% | 4.18% | ▼ −0.40 pp | 4.79% Jan 13, 2025 | 3.97% Oct 22, 2025 | $93,429 | $87,509 | ▼ −6.34% | Same |
| 2026 (to Oct 9) | 4.18% | 5.24% | ▲ +1.06 pp | 5.31% Oct 5, 2026 | 3.97% Feb 27, 2026 | $87,509 | $82,546 | ▼ −5.67% | Opposite |
10-year yield = the Treasury’s daily par yield curve rate for 10-year notes (“10 Yr”).1 Start = the last figure of the previous year; end = the last figure of the year (for 2026, October 9, 2026). High and low = the year’s highest and lowest daily figures. BTC start and end = the daily close (UTC) on December 31 of the previous year and of the year (for 2026, October 9).2 Year-end closes match Blockchain.com’s daily average price to within 0.2%, except 2017 (2.6%).3 Moved in = whether the yield and bitcoin rose or fell together that year. Past moves are shown as observed facts, not as a forecast.
The 10-year Treasury yield is the yield on a 10-year US government note. The Treasury calculates it every business day from the market prices of its securities, as part of its par yield curve.1 It isn’t set by the Federal Reserve. The Fed sets a short-term policy rate (see bitcoin on Fed decision days), while the 10-year yield moves with trading in Treasury notes. Changes are measured here in percentage points (pp): a move from 4.18% to 5.24% is +1.06 pp.
The 10-year yield began 2026 at 4.18% and fell to 3.97% on February 27. It then climbed to 5.31% on October 5, the highest daily figure since this table starts in 2015 (and since the Treasury data used here starts in 2014).1 Bitcoin rose 30% between those two dates, from $65,882 to $85,787.2 Over the whole year to October 9, though, the yield was up 1.06 pp and bitcoin was down 5.7%.
Across the 12 years in the table, the yield and bitcoin moved in the same direction in 5 and in opposite directions in 6. In the other year, 2023, the yield ended exactly where it began, at 3.88%, while bitcoin rose 155%.12 The table shows how the two moved over the same periods. It doesn’t show that one caused the other, and many other things moved bitcoin in those years.
For information only. Not financial advice. See the terms of use.