The 15 largest one-day moves in the Federal Reserve’s broad dollar index since bitcoin’s daily data begins in 2014, ranked by size, with what bitcoin did on the same day. Bitcoin moved the opposite way on 8 of them.
Data as of · 2,875 business-day moves, Sep 2014 to Oct 16, 2026 · Fed H.10 broad dollar index (noon New York rates) · bitcoin daily closes (UTC)
| Rank | Date | Dollar index change | Dollar index | Bitcoin, same day | Bitcoin, prior → close | Dollar | Bitcoin vs dollar | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 17, 2016 | ▼ −2.07% | 112.8 → 110.4 | ▲ +0.87% | $417.01 → $420.62 | Dollar down | Opposite | 2016 |
| 2 | Mar 12, 2020 | ▲ +1.89% | 118.3 → 120.5 | ▼ −37.17% | $7,911 → $4,971 | Dollar up | Opposite | 2020 |
| 3 | Mar 26, 2020 | ▼ −1.89% | 124.8 → 122.4 | ▲ +0.53% | $6,681 → $6,716 | Dollar down | Opposite | 2020 |
| 4 | Dec 15, 2016 | ▲ +1.78% | 116.7 → 118.8 | ▼ −0.43% | $781.48 → $778.09 | Dollar up | Opposite | 2016 |
| 5 | Jun 24, 2016 | ▲ +1.70% | 110.3 → 112.1 | ▲ +6.62% | $623.98 → $665.30 | Dollar up | Same | 2016 |
| 6 | Mar 18, 2020 | ▲ +1.37% | 122.5 → 124.2 | ▲ +0.25% | $5,226 → $5,238 | Dollar up | Same | 2020 |
| 7 | Jun 17, 2021 | ▲ +1.31% | 111.1 → 112.6 | ▼ −0.77% | $38,347 → $38,054 | Dollar up | Opposite | 2021 |
| 8 | Dec 14, 2023 | ▼ −1.31% | 121.2 → 119.6 | ▲ +0.31% | $42,891 → $43,024 | Dollar down | Opposite | 2023 |
| 9 | Apr 3, 2025 | ▼ −1.31% | 126.4 → 124.7 | ▲ +0.75% | $82,486 → $83,103 | Dollar down | Opposite | 2025 |
| 10 | Mar 17, 2020 | ▲ +1.28% | 120.9 → 122.5 | ▲ +4.21% | $5,014 → $5,226 | Dollar up | Same | 2020 |
| 11 | Nov 9, 2016 | ▲ +1.23% | 113.3 → 114.7 | ▲ +1.89% | $709.85 → $723.27 | Dollar up | Same | 2016 |
| 12 | Dec 1, 2022 | ▼ −1.22% | 123.5 → 122.0 | ▼ −1.17% | $17,169 → $16,967 | Dollar down | Same | 2022 |
| 13 | Apr 10, 2025 | ▼ −1.22% | 126.6 → 125.1 | ▼ −3.57% | $82,574 → $79,626 | Dollar down | Same | 2025 |
| 14 | Mar 5, 2025 | ▼ −1.17% | 128.0 → 126.5 | ▲ +3.90% | $87,222 → $90,624 | Dollar down | Opposite | 2025 |
| 15 | Feb 24, 2022 | ▲ +1.11% | 114.7 → 115.9 | ▲ +2.78% | $37,297 → $38,333 | Dollar up | Same | 2022 |
Dollar index change = the Fed’s Nominal Broad Dollar Index on the day ÷ its value on the previous business day, minus 1; the H.10 figures are noon New York rates.1 Moves across a gap of more than one business day (for example around a holiday) are excluded, so every move is a one-day one. Bitcoin, same day = UTC daily close on that calendar date ÷ the close the day before, so it covers a window about eight hours earlier than the index’s.2 Each bitcoin change is within 2.4 percentage points of Blockchain.com’s daily average price.3 Of the 2,875 one-day dollar moves, bitcoin moved the opposite way on 55%; on the 21 days when the index moved 1% or more, it moved the opposite way on 11. Observed facts, not a forecast.
The index weights the dollar against a broad group of US trading partners’ currencies. Eight of the 15 days fall in 2016 or 2020, including the Brexit vote and the weeks around the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. For the longer swings, see how the US dollar has lined up with bitcoin.
The Fed’s broad dollar index fell 2.07%, from 112.78 to 110.44.1 Bitcoin’s UTC close that day was $420.62, up 0.87% from $417.01.2 Dated item from the same news cycle: On March 16 the FOMC said it had decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent.4 It is listed because it falls on or just before the day, not because the data shows it caused either move.
The Fed’s broad dollar index rose 1.89%, from 118.25 to 120.49.1 Bitcoin’s UTC close that day was $4,971, down 37.17% from $7,911.2 Dated item from the same news cycle: On March 12 the European Central Bank added a temporary envelope of €120 billion of net asset purchases,5 and the New York Fed said it would offer $500 billion in a three-month repo operation that day.6 It is listed because it falls on or just before the day, not because the data shows it caused either move.
The Fed’s broad dollar index fell 1.89%, from 124.79 to 122.43.1 Bitcoin’s UTC close that day was $6,716, up 0.53% from $6,681.2 Dated item from the same news cycle: On March 26 the Department of Labor reported 3,283,000 advance initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21, “the highest level … in the history of the seasonally adjusted series.”7 It is listed because it falls on or just before the day, not because the data shows it caused either move.
The Fed’s broad dollar index rose 1.78%, from 116.73 to 118.81.1 Bitcoin’s UTC close that day was $778.09, down 0.43% from $781.48.2 Dated item from the same news cycle: On December 14 the FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent.8 It is listed because it falls on or just before the day, not because the data shows it caused either move.
The Fed’s broad dollar index rose 1.70%, from 110.26 to 112.14.1 Bitcoin’s UTC close that day was $665.30, up 6.62% from $623.98.2 Dated item from the same news cycle: On June 24 the UK Electoral Commission’s report records that 17,410,742 people (51.9%) voted to leave the European Union,9 and the Bank of England Governor said the same day: “The people of the United Kingdom have voted to leave the European Union.”10 It is listed because it falls on or just before the day, not because the data shows it caused either move.
The Fed’s broad dollar index rose 1.37%, from 122.48 to 124.16.1 Bitcoin’s UTC close that day was $5,238, up 0.25% from $5,226.2 Dated item from the same news cycle: On March 17 the Fed announced a Commercial Paper Funding Facility,11 and on March 18 the ECB announced a €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme.12 It is listed because it falls on or just before the day, not because the data shows it caused either move.
The Fed’s broad dollar index rose 1.31%, from 111.12 to 112.58.1 Bitcoin’s UTC close that day was $38,054, down 0.77% from $38,347.2 Dated item from the same news cycle: On June 16 the FOMC decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.13 It is listed because it falls on or just before the day, not because the data shows it caused either move.
The Fed’s broad dollar index fell 1.31%, from 121.16 to 119.57.1 Bitcoin’s UTC close that day was $43,024, up 0.31% from $42,891.2 Dated item from the same news cycle: On December 13 the FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.14 It is listed because it falls on or just before the day, not because the data shows it caused either move.
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