Correlation measures how closely two prices move together day to day. For each year since 2015, this shows how closely bitcoin’s daily changes tracked the S&P 500’s, as an observed statistic: near zero until 2019, highest in 2022, and +0.45 so far in 2026.
Data as of · S&P 500 closes from Cboe, bitcoin daily closes (UTC) from Yahoo Finance · 2026 is a partial year
| Year | Correlation with S&P 500 | Strength | Cross-check (Blockchain.com) | Trading days | S&P 500, year | Bitcoin, year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 to Oct 16 | +0.45 | Strong (0.4 or more) | +0.45 | 199 | ▲ +11.89% | ▼ −6.87% |
| 2025 | +0.39 | Moderate (0.2 to 0.4) | +0.39 | 250 | ▲ +16.39% | ▼ −6.34% |
| 2024 | +0.38 | Moderate (0.2 to 0.4) | +0.38 | 252 | ▲ +23.31% | ▲ +121.05% |
| 2023 | +0.19 | Weak (under 0.2) | +0.20 | 250 | ▲ +24.23% | ▲ +155.42% |
| 2022 | +0.56 | Strong (0.4 or more) | +0.56 | 251 | ▼ −19.44% | ▼ −64.27% |
| 2021 | +0.33 | Moderate (0.2 to 0.4) | +0.34 | 252 | ▲ +26.89% | ▲ +59.67% |
| 2020 | +0.43 | Strong (0.4 or more) | +0.43 | 253 | ▲ +16.26% | ▲ +303.16% |
| 2019 | −0.06 | Weak (under 0.2) | −0.05 | 252 | ▲ +28.88% | ▲ +92.20% |
| 2018 | +0.12 | Weak (under 0.2) | +0.10 | 251 | ▼ −6.24% | ▼ −73.56% |
| 2017 | +0.02 | Weak (under 0.2) | +0.00 | 251 | ▲ +19.42% | ▲ +1368.90% |
| 2016 | −0.04 | Weak (under 0.2) | −0.04 | 252 | ▲ +9.54% | ▲ +123.83% |
| 2015 | +0.02 | Weak (under 0.2) | +0.02 | 252 | ▼ −0.73% | ▲ +34.47% |
Correlation = the Pearson correlation of daily log price changes on days when the US stock market was open; bitcoin’s change is its UTC close on the same date over the previous day’s close.12 Strength bands (weak under 0.2, moderate 0.2 to 0.4, strong 0.4 or more) are a convention used for this table, not a standard. S&P 500, year and Bitcoin, year = the year’s last close ÷ the previous year’s last close, minus 1 (2015 from its first close). Observed facts, not a forecast.
Correlation is a number between −1 and +1 describing how closely two series move together day by day. +1 means they always move in the same direction in proportion, 0 means no consistent relationship, and −1 means they move in opposite directions. Here each point is one trading day: the S&P 500’s log price change that day and bitcoin’s over the same calendar date (UTC).12
For each year, the table uses only days when the US stock market was open and bitcoin has a close for both that date and the day before, and takes the Pearson correlation of the two series of log price changes.12 Each yearly figure is within 0.02 of the same calculation using Blockchain.com’s daily average bitcoin price.3 2026 has fewer days because it runs only to October 16.
The S&P 500 closes at 4:00 p.m. New York time, while bitcoin’s UTC day ends at 8:00 p.m. New York time (7:00 p.m. in winter), so the two daily changes cover overlapping but not identical windows. Correlation also depends on the period: it can differ for weekly or monthly changes, and a high yearly figure can come from a few large days.
A correlation describes how two series moved together over a year. It does not show that one drove the other, that the relationship will continue, or why it changed. For the days the S&P 500 fell most, see bitcoin on the S&P 500’s worst days.
For information only. Not financial advice. See the terms of use.