M2 is the Federal Reserve’s measure of the money held in cash, bank deposits and retail money funds. This post lines up the growth in M2 with bitcoin’s price change for every year from 2015 to 2025, plus 2026 so far, including M2’s 15 months of year-on-year decline in 2022–2024.
Data as of · M2 through September 2026 (Fed H.6, Oct 27, 2026 release) · bitcoin daily closes (UTC) from Yahoo Finance
| Year | M2, start | M2, end | M2 growth | Bitcoin change | M2 in the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $11,721B | $12,394B | ▲ +5.7% | ▲ +34.5% | Grew above 5% |
| 2016 | $12,394B | $13,241B | ▲ +6.8% | ▲ +123.8% | Grew above 5% |
| 2017 | $13,241B | $13,887B | ▲ +4.9% | ▲ +1,368.9% | Grew up to 5% |
| 2018 | $13,887B | $14,392B | ▲ +3.6% | ▼ −73.6% | Grew up to 5% |
| 2019 | $14,392B | $15,352B | ▲ +6.7% | ▲ +92.2% | Grew above 5% |
| 2020 | $15,352B | $19,119B | ▲ +24.5% | ▲ +303.2% | Grew above 5% |
| 2021 | $19,119B | $21,488B | ▲ +12.4% | ▲ +59.7% | Grew above 5% |
| 2022 | $21,488B | $21,273B | ▼ −1.0% | ▼ −64.3% | Shrank |
| 2023 | $21,273B | $20,754B | ▼ −2.4% | ▲ +155.4% | Shrank |
| 2024 | $20,754B | $21,462B | ▲ +3.4% | ▲ +121.1% | Grew up to 5% |
| 2025 | $21,462B | $22,329B | ▲ +4.0% | ▼ −6.3% | Grew up to 5% |
| 2026 (to Sep) | $22,329B | $23,414B | ▲ +4.9% | ▼ −4.5% | Grew up to 5% |
M2 = the Federal Reserve’s M2 money stock, monthly, seasonally adjusted, in billions of dollars (B); start = the previous December, end = December of the year (September for 2026).2 Bitcoin change = the UTC close on Dec 31 (Sep 30 for 2026) ÷ the close on the previous Dec 31, minus 1.3 Observed facts, not a forecast.
M2 is the Federal Reserve’s broader measure of the US money stock. The Board defines it as M1, which sums currency, demand deposits and other liquid deposits, plus small-denomination time deposits (under $100,000) and balances in retail money market funds, less balances in retirement accounts held at banks and funds.1
The Board publishes the money stock monthly in its H.6 release; the table uses the monthly, seasonally adjusted M2 level in billions of dollars as copied by the St. Louis Fed, which runs from January 1959.2 Growth for a year compares December with the previous December (September 2026 with December 2025 for the current year). Bitcoin’s change compares its UTC close on the last day of the same period with the close a year before.3
Across the 11 full years from 2015 to 2025, the correlation between M2 growth and bitcoin’s change is 0.11 (1 would be a perfect match and 0 none). In the 5 years with M2 growth above the median (4.9%), bitcoin rose in 5; in the 6 years at or below it, bitcoin rose in 3.23 Eleven yearly observations are too few to separate this from chance.
The Fed’s own balance sheet is a different quantity from M2; see the Fed balance sheet and bitcoin. For the government’s side, see US budget deficits and bitcoin and how fast federal debt has added each trillion. “Debasement” is the idea that rising money supply erodes money’s purchasing power; this page records the money-supply and price figures and does not test that idea.
M2 figures are revised and seasonally adjusted, bitcoin’s calendar-year change depends on the start and end dates, and many other things moved in each year. The table pairs two numbers per year and does not show that either affected the other, or what either will do next.
For information only. Not financial advice. See the terms of use.