Bitcoin on the Biggest 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Move Days

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is the St. Louis Fed’s measure of expected inflation, derived from the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year inflation-indexed yield. This ranks the 14 trading days since September 2014 on which it moved 13 basis points (0.13 percentage point) or more in a day, and shows what bitcoin did on the same day: it rose on 8 of them and fell on 6.

Data as of 2026-11-12 · rates through Nov 9, 2026; bitcoin closes at 00:00 UTC; days since Sep 18, 2014

Illustration: every day since 2014 on which the 10-year breakeven inflation rate moved 13 basis points or more, with bitcoin’s move on the same day.

Bitcoin on the Biggest 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Move Days, data as of 2026-11-12
Rank	Date	Breakeven change	Breakeven, before → after	BTC same day
1	Mar 9, 2020	▼ −32 bp	1.31% → 0.99%	▼ −2.3%
2	Mar 20, 2020	▲ +25 bp	0.50% → 0.75%	▲ +0.1%
3	Mar 16, 2020	▼ −17 bp	0.90% → 0.73%	▼ −7.0%
3	Mar 24, 2020	▲ +17 bp	0.80% → 0.97%	▲ +5.0%
5	Apr 16, 2020	▼ −16 bp	1.19% → 1.03%	▲ +7.1%
5	Aug 2, 2024	▼ −16 bp	2.20% → 2.04%	▼ −6.0%
7	Jun 14, 2022	▼ −14 bp	2.74% → 2.60%	▼ −1.2%
7	Sep 29, 2022	▼ −14 bp	2.33% → 2.19%	▲ +0.8%
9	Mar 19, 2020	▼ −13 bp	0.63% → 0.50%	▲ +18.2%
9	Mar 27, 2020	▼ −13 bp	1.07% → 0.94%	▼ −3.7%
9	Mar 8, 2022	▲ +13 bp	2.77% → 2.90%	▲ +1.8%
9	May 19, 2022	▼ −13 bp	2.72% → 2.59%	▲ +5.6%
9	Nov 3, 2022	▼ −13 bp	2.53% → 2.40%	▲ +0.3%
9	Jul 20, 2023	▲ +13 bp	2.22% → 2.35%	▼ −0.4%

Breakeven change = the day’s 10-year breakeven inflation rate (FRED series T10YIE, percent) minus the previous published day’s, in basis points; days without a published rate (weekends, US market holidays) are skipped. The list is every day with a move of 13 basis points or more.¹ BTC same day = Yahoo Finance’s BTC-USD close at the 00:00 UTC day boundary on the date, over the previous day’s.² The breakeven rate is a US market-close figure and bitcoin trades around the clock, so the two moves cover slightly different hours. Ranks are by size of the move, up or down; ties share a rank. Observed facts, not a forecast.

The top 5

4 of the 14 moves were rises and 10 were falls. For related days, see the biggest 10-year yield moves and the biggest real-yield move days.

Mar 9, 2020

▼ −32 bp

The 10-year breakeven rate fell 32 basis points, from 1.31% on Mar 6, 2020 to 0.99%.¹ Bitcoin’s UTC close that day was -2.3% against the day before.²

Mar 20, 2020

▲ +25 bp

The 10-year breakeven rate rose 25 basis points, from 0.50% on Mar 19, 2020 to 0.75%.¹ Bitcoin’s UTC close that day was +0.1% against the day before.²

Mar 16, 2020

▼ −17 bp

The 10-year breakeven rate fell 17 basis points, from 0.90% on Mar 13, 2020 to 0.73%.¹ Bitcoin’s UTC close that day was -7.0% against the day before.²

Mar 24, 2020

▲ +17 bp

The 10-year breakeven rate rose 17 basis points, from 0.80% on Mar 23, 2020 to 0.97%.¹ Bitcoin’s UTC close that day was +5.0% against the day before.²

Apr 16, 2020

▼ −16 bp

The 10-year breakeven rate fell 16 basis points, from 1.19% on Apr 15, 2020 to 1.03%.¹ Bitcoin’s UTC close that day was +7.1% against the day before.²

Sources

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED, 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T10YIE), daily series from 2014-09-02 to 2026-11-13, retrieved 2026-11-12.
Yahoo Finance chart API, BTC-USD daily close (00:00 UTC day boundary), 2014-09-17 to 2026-11-10, retrieved 2026-11-12. A day’s bitcoin move is that day’s close divided by the previous calendar day’s close, minus 1.

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