Interest rates after inflation, known as real yields, are one of the numbers analysts set beside bitcoin. This explainer lays out the 10-year real yield, the breakeven inflation rate and the ordinary 10-year yield at the end of each year from 2015, next to bitcoin’s year-end close, and says what each measure is.
Data as of · yields on the last trading day of each year (2026: Nov 3) · BTC = close on Dec 31 UTC (2026: Nov 3)
| Year | Real yield | Real yield change | Breakeven | Breakeven change | 10-year yield | BTC close | BTC change | Real yield moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 0.73% | ▲ +0.24 pp | 1.54% | ▼ −0.14 pp | 2.27% | $431 | ▲ +34.5% | Rose |
| 2016 | 0.50% | ▼ −0.23 pp | 1.95% | ▲ +0.41 pp | 2.45% | $964 | ▲ +123.8% | Fell |
| 2017 | 0.44% | ▼ −0.06 pp | 1.96% | ▲ +0.01 pp | 2.40% | $14,156 | ▲ +1,368.9% | Fell |
| 2018 | 0.98% | ▲ +0.54 pp | 1.71% | ▼ −0.25 pp | 2.69% | $3,743 | ▼ −73.6% | Rose |
| 2019 | 0.15% | ▼ −0.83 pp | 1.77% | ▲ +0.06 pp | 1.92% | $7,194 | ▲ +92.2% | Fell |
| 2020 | -1.06% | ▼ −1.21 pp | 1.99% | ▲ +0.22 pp | 0.93% | $29,002 | ▲ +303.2% | Fell |
| 2021 | -1.04% | ▲ +0.02 pp | 2.56% | ▲ +0.57 pp | 1.52% | $46,306 | ▲ +59.7% | Rose |
| 2022 | 1.58% | ▲ +2.62 pp | 2.30% | ▼ −0.26 pp | 3.88% | $16,547 | ▼ −64.3% | Rose |
| 2023 | 1.72% | ▲ +0.14 pp | 2.16% | ▼ −0.14 pp | 3.88% | $42,265 | ▲ +155.4% | Rose |
| 2024 | 2.24% | ▲ +0.52 pp | 2.34% | ▲ +0.18 pp | 4.58% | $93,429 | ▲ +121.1% | Rose |
| 2025 | 1.93% | ▼ −0.31 pp | 2.25% | ▼ −0.09 pp | 4.18% | $87,509 | ▼ −6.3% | Fell |
| 2026 (to Nov 3) | 2.65% | ▲ +0.72 pp | 2.30% | ▲ +0.05 pp | 4.95% | $77,345 | ▼ −11.6% | Rose |
Real yield = 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury constant-maturity yield (DFII10); breakeven = 10-year breakeven inflation rate (T10YIE); 10-year yield = DGS10. All in percent, from the St. Louis Fed’s FRED.123 Changes are against the previous year’s row; 2015’s base is the end of 2014 (real yield 0.49%, breakeven 1.68%, BTC close $320). BTC close = Yahoo Finance daily close at the UTC day boundary.4 Observed facts, not a forecast.
For another macro pairing, see US money supply and bitcoin.
A Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) is a US government bond whose principal is adjusted with inflation; it pays a fixed rate of interest on that adjusted principal.5 The 10-year real yield in the table is the market yield on 10-year inflation-indexed Treasuries, a yield quoted after allowing for inflation.1 A pp is a percentage point: a move from 0.50% to 0.75% is 0.25 pp.
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is the St. Louis Fed’s measure of expected inflation, derived from the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year inflation-indexed yield.2 In plain terms it is roughly the ordinary 10-year yield minus the real yield: at the end of 2025, 4.18% minus 1.93% is 2.25%, the figure shown.31 Both figures are market yields on given days, not forecasts published by the Fed.
Each row takes the last trading day of the year for the yields and December 31 for bitcoin’s close, and compares both with the year before.4 The 2026 row runs to November 3, the latest day in the yield data. The yield changes are differences between the rounded figures shown.
Counted across the twelve rows, bitcoin’s close rose in 4 of the 5 years the real yield fell and in 4 of the 7 years it rose, so the pairing is mixed. Each row is a single day at each end of a year, one asset and one yield; many other things changed in the same periods. The table records what happened and says nothing about what comes next.
For information only. Not financial advice. See the terms of use.