The Federal Reserve’s broad dollar index has swung up and down by 6% or more ten times since 2014. This post lines each swing up with what bitcoin did over the same dates, as observed facts.
Data as of · Fed broad dollar index (index January 1997 = 100) · bitcoin daily closes (UTC)
| Period | Days | Dollar index | Dollar change | Dollar | Bitcoin, start → end | Bitcoin change | Bitcoin vs dollar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2014 → Jan 20, 2016 | 490 | 95.9 → 116.3 | ▲ +21.3% | Dollar up | $457.33 → $420.23 | ▼ −8.11% | Opposite |
| Jan 20, 2016 → May 2, 2016 | 103 | 116.3 → 108.7 | ▼ −6.6% | Dollar down | $420.23 → $444.67 | ▲ +5.82% | Opposite |
| May 2, 2016 → Dec 28, 2016 | 240 | 108.7 → 119.2 | ▲ +9.7% | Dollar up | $444.67 → $975.92 | ▲ +119.47% | Same |
| Dec 28, 2016 → Feb 1, 2018 | 400 | 119.2 → 106.5 | ▼ −10.7% | Dollar down | $975.92 → $9,171 | ▲ +839.68% | Opposite |
| Feb 1, 2018 → Mar 23, 2020 | 781 | 106.5 → 126.1 | ▲ +18.4% | Dollar up | $9,171 → $6,416 | ▼ −30.03% | Opposite |
| Mar 23, 2020 → Jun 1, 2021 | 435 | 126.1 → 110.5 | ▼ −12.4% | Dollar down | $6,416 → $36,685 | ▲ +471.74% | Opposite |
| Jun 1, 2021 → Sep 26, 2022 | 482 | 110.5 → 128.5 | ▲ +16.2% | Dollar up | $36,685 → $19,223 | ▼ −47.60% | Opposite |
| Sep 26, 2022 → Jul 18, 2023 | 295 | 128.5 → 117.0 | ▼ −8.9% | Dollar down | $19,223 → $29,857 | ▲ +55.32% | Opposite |
| Jul 18, 2023 → Jan 13, 2025 | 545 | 117.0 → 130.0 | ▲ +11.1% | Dollar up | $29,857 → $94,517 | ▲ +216.57% | Same |
| Jan 13, 2025 → Jan 29, 2026 | 381 | 130.0 → 117.4 | ▼ −9.7% | Dollar down | $94,517 → $84,562 | ▼ −10.53% | Same |
| Jan 29, 2026 → Oct 9, 2026 | 253 | 117.4 → 121.6 | ▲ +3.5% | Dollar up (partial) | $84,562 → $82,546 | ▼ −2.38% | Opposite |
Dollar index = the Fed’s Nominal Broad Dollar Index on the day shown.1 A swing runs from one high or low to the next once the index has reversed by 6% or more; the last row is the move since the latest low, which has not reached 6%. Bitcoin = the close (UTC) on the same two dates.2 Bitcoin’s change over each swing matches Blockchain.com’s daily average price to within 8 percentage points in every swing, and to within 2 points in eight of the ten.3 Same/Opposite compares the signs of the two changes. Observed facts, not a forecast.
The Federal Reserve publishes a Nominal Broad Dollar Index, described as “a weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. trading partners.” It is set to 100 in January 1997 and published every business day.1 News reports often quote a different measure, the “DXY”; this post uses only the Fed’s index. On October 9, 2026 the Fed’s index stood at 121.6.1
The table follows the index from September 17, 2014, when the bitcoin data starts. A new swing begins whenever the index reverses by at least 6% from its latest high or low. This gives 10 completed swings, five rallies and five falls, and a last row for the move since the most recent low.1 Bitcoin’s change is measured between the same two dates, using daily closes (UTC).2 A 6% threshold is a choice made for this table; a different one would cut the windows differently.
In 7 of the 10 completed swings, bitcoin moved opposite to the dollar; in 3 it moved with it.12 Bitcoin rose in 4 of the 5 dollar falls and in 2 of the 5 dollar rallies. Its biggest gain, 840% between Dec 28, 2016 and Feb 1, 2018, came while the dollar fell 10.7%; its largest fall, 47.6%, came in a dollar rally.2
Three of the windows contain a bitcoin halving (July 9, 2016, May 11, 2020 and April 20, 2024; see bitcoin’s halvings, explained), and every window contains many other events. The table shows how the two moved over the same dates. It does not show that one caused the other.
From its high of 130.0 on Jan 13, 2025, the index fell 9.7% to 117.4 on Jan 29, 2026.1 Since then it has risen 3.5%, to 121.6 on Oct 9, 2026, which is below the 6% needed to count as a new swing. Bitcoin closed 2.4% lower over those dates, from $84,562 to $82,546.2 Related: bitcoin and the 10-year Treasury yield and the Fed’s balance sheet and bitcoin.
For information only. Not financial advice. See the terms of use.